this from my
hotel room overseeing the Russian Foreign Ministry’s iconic main
building, a gigantic Stalinist-style skyscraper that was built as one of
Moscow’s famous “Seven Sisters” between 1947 and 1953. Having witnessed
the rise and fall of the Soviet empire, the building has recently
re-emerged as a global power broker, particularly when it comes to the
Middle East.
However, for an outsider, Moscow’s foreign policy seems intensely
confusing to say the least. For instance, Russia remains the only power
in the world (aside from Iran) that backs Syria’s dictatorship, a brutal
regime that justifies its actions by claiming it is a victim of its
anti-Israeli, anti-American position.
Yet this
Russian support did not prevent Moscow from giving a warm welcome
recently to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was visiting
to mark the 25th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two
countries. This comes just weeks after announcing that Israel does not
intend to ever return the Golan Heights - which it seized in 1967 - to
Syria.
Another
oxymoron, in which Russia may be similar to many Middle Eastern
countries, is the awkward love / hate relationship with the United
States. I must admit that upon visiting Moscow for the first time, the
sight of the golden arches of McDonalds and other popular US brands
almost everywhere was a real shocker.
It is not only Russia’s history of communism that makes these sights
awkward. It is the current, intense local media coverage of bilateral
relations, which makes one feel like the two nations are still at war.
Asked about Moscow’s peculiar foreign policy, some local journalists and
political analysts are full of praise, adding that it is pragmatism at
its very best and ensures Russian interests are always served.
However, one
expert candidly said these “Cold War tactics” ensured that people rally
behind the flag and do not pay attention to the worsening economy since
the collapse of the ruble in 2014.
The dispute over Syria
A major battleground of this new Cold War is Syria, where Moscow and Washington - along with most Gulf states - back opposing sides. Ironically, despite Russia’s military involvement, the average citizens you meet here are not able to locate Damascus on a map, let alone distinguish between regime loyalists, Al-Nusra and ISIS.
A major battleground of this new Cold War is Syria, where Moscow and Washington - along with most Gulf states - back opposing sides. Ironically, despite Russia’s military involvement, the average citizens you meet here are not able to locate Damascus on a map, let alone distinguish between regime loyalists, Al-Nusra and ISIS.
However, not
everyone here is as detached. Almost a year ago, Russia’s Orthodox
Church controversially described Moscow’s involvement in Syria as a “holy war,” though it later claimed its position was distorted by the media.
Experts I spoke
to say Russia’s backing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a matter
of principle, citing Moscow’s concern for global stability and a lack
of desire to see the Libyan debacle (for which they blame US
involvement) being repeated in Syria.
If this is the
case, one could safely deduce that Moscow would have no issue with
Assad’s removal if it is done in a way that preserves Syria, or what is
left of it. At least this is what should be understood from the recent
comments of the Foreign Ministry’s official spokesperson Maria
Zakharova. In March, she told the local Sputnik News agency that Russia backs a legitimate authority in Syria, “not Assad personally.”
This was
perceived as a positive sign by many in the Syrian opposition and among
their Gulf backers. However, there seems to be conflicting views and
more than one say in Moscow when it comes to this issue. Some advisors
may feel this would be too much of a compromise, and a victory to the
US-backed side. As such, more senior Russian officials have made it
clear that it they won’t force Assad to leave, particularly if he is
reelected by his people (or what remains of them).
Gulf states
oppose any solution that does not guarantee the removal of the
Iran-backed Assad, particularly following their massive financial,
military and - most importantly - personal investment in this matter
since 2011.
Yet things are
changing, and there is a new, dynamic government in Saudi Arabia that is
eager to move things forward. While Riyadh continues to maintain its
position that Assad should be removed either by diplomatic or military
means, we have seen unprecedented determination not to allow differences
with Moscow on this matter to affect overall relations.
Close
cooperation between Riyadh and Moscow cannot but be helpful,
particularly when it comes to regional and oil-market stability. Most
recently, Russia has proposed to mediate between the Saudis and
Iranians.
Though neither
Tehran nor Riyadh has jumped on the offer, the mere fact that Moscow
made such a proposal is interesting. For its part, Saudi Arabia has
repeatedly maintained that it wants good relations with Iran, but that
it must stop meddling in its neighbors’ internal affairs.
Russia also
seems ready to play a bigger role in Israeli-Palestinian talks. Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly brought up the Arab Peace Initiative
during Netanyahu’s recent visit. However, without reconciliation between
Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah, Israel will always have an excuse
to stay away from the negotiating table.
I leave Moscow
with a much better grasp of its positions. However, given that I was
there to participate in a media forum, I cannot but say that signing
bilateral media agreements with the likes of the discredited Syrian Arab
News Agency (SANA) will not help clarify Russia’s positions in the
Middle East.
Regardless of
whether it can convince the Arab street of its stance, Moscow would
benefit much more from a stronger presence on mainstream and credible
Arabic media outlets. This cannot be achieved by partnering with a
state-owned news agency that has, in the midst of a civil war, reported
that tourism is on the rise in Syria. The only thing on the rise in the
country is terrorism; it is only by closer cooperation with the Gulf
that this can be stopped.
*This blog was originally published in Al Arabiya News.
